FDA Clears Oral Wegovy with 16.6% Weight-Loss Lead, Launching Ahead of Lilly’s 12.4% Orforglipron
FDA approved Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill on December 23, 2025, with sales starting January 2026, granting Novo a several-month head start over Lilly’s orforglipron, which isn’t expected before late March. Oral Wegovy showed 16.6% weight loss versus 12.4% for Lilly’s candidate, risking lower market share for Lilly.
1. Institutional Investors Increase Stakes
Several major funds have boosted their positions in Eli Lilly during Q3, signaling confidence among large shareholders. Ascent Group LLC raised its holding by 3.3%, acquiring an additional 575 shares and bringing its total to 17,821 shares. Generate Investment Management Ltd added 15,352 shares (+23.1%), making LLY its seventh largest position at 81,813 shares. Vanguard Group also modestly increased its stake by 1.5%, now holding over 80.4 million shares. These moves come as institutional ownership remains high at roughly 82.5% of the float, underscoring broad support for management’s strategy and pipeline execution.
2. Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations and Upward Guidance
In Q3, Eli Lilly reported adjusted EPS of $7.02, surpassing consensus by $0.60, driven by 53.9% year-over-year revenue growth to $17.6 billion. Strong demand for its biologics portfolio and recent U.S. approvals for obesity and diabetes treatments fueled results. Management raised full–year EPS guidance to a range of $23.00–$23.70, up from prior guidance centered around $22.50, reflecting continued traction for key growth drivers. Return on equity reached 109.5%, reinforcing the firm’s capacity to convert R&D investment into shareholder value.
3. Dividend Hike and Robust Payout Profile
Eli Lilly increased its quarterly dividend from $1.50 to $1.73 per share, representing an annualized payout of $6.92 and a payout ratio near 29.4%. This marks the 10th consecutive year of dividend growth, supporting a modest yield of approximately 0.6%. Management cites strong free cash flow generation and a balanced capital allocation framework—targeting R&D, dividends and opportunistic buybacks—as the foundation for maintaining and potentially further raising distributions.
4. Analyst Upgrades and Consensus Ratings
Following Q3 results and bullish pipeline news, four research firms have upgraded their ratings to Strong Buy, while seventeen maintain Buy and five hold ratings, leading to a consensus Moderate Buy. Price targets have risen across the board, with several brokerages boosting objectives above $1,100. Analysts highlight the mid-teens multiples justified by sustained double-digit sales growth in immunology, oncology and obesity, and view LLY’s valuation as attractive given its leadership in GLP-1 therapeutics and expanding next-generation pipeline.