Fidelis Capital flags S&P 500 forward P/E at 19 heading into Q3 earnings season
SPY•Fidelis Capital flagged risks to Q3 earnings season as markets priced in broad participation, with S&P 500 earnings growth forecast at 29.5%. The index’s forward P/E was 19 last week, down from 20.4 at Q2-end and below its five- and 10-year averages.
1. Valuation and earnings outlook
Fidelis Capital flagged risks heading into Q3 earnings season, with S&P 500 earnings per share growth forecast at 29.5%. The index’s forward P/E stood at 19 last week, down from 20.4 at the end of Q2 and below five- and 10-year averages of 19.8 and 19.1.
2. Concentration and breadth
A Goldman estimate cited in the brief said Micron and Nvidia could drive more than one-third of S&P 500 Q3 earnings expansion, raising concentration risk. Market breadth weakened, with 46% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average as of Tuesday.
3. Profit margins
Net profit margins rose to 17% in Q2 2026 from 12.9% a year earlier; their durability was identified as a key watch item in Q3.
