First Solar Backlog Plunges 36% to 50.1 GW, 2026 Revenue Cut Misses by $1 B
First Solar's contracted backlog shrank from 78.3 GW at end-2023 to 50.1 GW by end-2025, with net bookings of negative 0.9 GW in 2025. Management cut 2026 revenue guidance to $4.9–$5.2 billion, missing estimates by $1 billion as Section 45X tax credits (55% of selling price) phase out.
1. Backlog Collapse and Booking Trends
First Solar's contracted backlog fell from 78.3 GW at the end of 2023 to 50.1 GW by the end of 2025, marking a 36% drop. In 2025 the company recorded 17.5 GW of shipments but faced 8.3 GW of cancellations and only 7.4 GW of new bookings, resulting in negative net bookings of 0.9 GW.
2. 2026 Revenue Guidance Miss
Management issued 2026 revenue guidance of $4.9–$5.2 billion, approximately $1 billion below consensus forecasts. This implies flat-to-negative top-line growth relative to 2025 and signals waning near-term demand and contracting activity.
3. Dependence on Section 45X Credits
Section 45X tax credits contribute $0.17 per watt—about 55% of the $0.30/watt selling price—boosting gross margins to roughly 40%. As these credits phase out by 2033, normalized margins could drop to 7–10%, slashing EPS from a subsidized $14.21 in 2025 to an estimated $2–3 without subsidies.