First Watch Expects 20.1% Q4 Revenue Growth After 25.6% Q3 Increase
First Watch's revenue last quarter totaled $316 million, up 25.6% year-over-year, with same-store sales and EBITDA both surpassing estimates. For Q4, analysts project 20.1% year-over-year revenue growth versus 7.6% a year ago, with consensus price target at $22.18 against a $15.94 share price.
1. Last Quarter Financial Performance
First Watch reported revenue of $316 million in Q3, marking a 25.6% year-over-year increase. Both same-store sales and EBITDA exceeded analyst estimates, reflecting strong operational momentum.
2. Q4 Revenue Expectations
Analysts forecast a 20.1% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, up from the 7.6% growth recorded in the same quarter last year. Consensus estimates have remained stable over the past 30 days, signaling confidence in the company's performance ahead of the report.
3. Analyst Estimates and Peer Comparison
Sit-down dining peers delivered mixed results: Brinker International posted 6.9% revenue growth beating estimates by 2.9%, while Texas Roadhouse reported 3.1% growth, missing estimates by 0.8%. These outcomes provide a benchmark for assessing First Watch’s upcoming earnings.
4. Share Price and Valuation
First Watch’s share price has been flat over the last month, trading at $15.94 with an average analyst price target of $22.18. This valuation gap highlights potential upside if the company meets or exceeds revenue projections.