CRWV•CRWV•AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, while borrowing costs, power constraints and uncertain returns raise questions about the investment boom. Estimates put top US hyperscalers’ data-center and other AI capital spending above $7 trillion from 2025 to 2030; one estimate says annual AI revenue may need to reach about $3.55 trillion by 2032 to deliver a 10% return.
AI-related shares have mostly risen even as bonds issued to finance AI investment have weakened. CoreWeave shares are down 13% this year, while its October 2031 bond has fallen more than 20% since its April launch and is trading below 80 cents on the dollar; credit default swap spreads have also risen to record highs for CoreWeave, Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta.
Analysts are divided on CoreWeave: HSBC forecast average returns through 2030 below its borrowing cost and set a $39 target, while Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” and set a $106 target. Token usage continues to rise as token spending growth slows, with falling prices prompting questions about whether AI demand will translate into revenue.
Grid constraints are leaving some AI chips in warehouses, and Morgan Stanley analysts estimate US data-center developers will face a 30% to 40% power shortfall through 2028, equivalent to 34% of total chip demand. McKinsey and S&P Global estimate the top six US hyperscalers will spend more than $7 trillion on data centers and other AI-related capital expenditure from 2025 to 2030; an estimate from Columbia University’s Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh says annual revenue of about $3.55 trillion by 2032 would be needed for a 10% return on the buildout.
