Flat Options Skew Points to Cheap Alphabet Calls and $285–$323 Range
Alphabet stock is down 3% since January after a historically weak February, with seasonal patterns typically turning positive in March. A flat volatility skew near the spot price and lower put versus call IV point to cheap calls, and Black-Scholes pricing forecasts a $284.69–$322.59 range for March 20 expiration.
1. February Performance And Seasonal Trends
Alphabet stock has declined about 3% since the start of the year, reflecting its statistically weakest month in February. Historical seasonal heatmaps show gains typically resume in March, suggesting contrarian entry points for investors.
2. Volatility Skew Analysis
Implied volatility skew across the March 20 options chain is unusually flat near the spot price, with put IV rising gradually and remaining below call IV. This dynamic implies limited demand for downside protection and relatively inexpensive calls for bullish traders.
3. Black-Scholes Expected Move Calculation
Using Black-Scholes, the expected one‐standard‐deviation trading range for Alphabet through March 20 spans $284.69 to $322.59, encompassing 68% of probable outcomes. This calculation helps frame risk parameters and informs strategies like bull call spreads expiring that same date.