Fluor’s stock declined by 20% during 2025 while the broader market advanced, driven primarily by a second-quarter earnings miss on both revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). The company’s abrupt reduction to its full-year guidance followed disclosures of cost overruns, scheduling delays and design problems on major infrastructure projects such as the Gordie Howe Bridge and several Texas highway expansions. In the third quarter, Fluor recorded a $653 million settlement payment to Santos as a reduction in revenue, exacerbating its top-line contraction. Investors responded with a class-action lawsuit alleging that prior public statements materially misrepresented the company’s growth prospects.

Fluor’s backlog shrank year-over-year for four consecutive quarters through Q3 2025, declining 10% compared to the prior period. The deterioration reflects faster completion of existing contracts than new awards, a strategic pivot toward smaller, lower-risk projects and lost momentum in winning large EPC assignments. On a GAAP basis, 2024 EPS surged from $0.54 to $12.30 per share, driven entirely by the one-time sale of NuScale Power shares, while adjusted EBITDA fell 14% due to weaker margins in energy solutions and a reduced pipeline of high-margin work.

Analysts forecast a 4% decline in 2025 revenue followed by a 7% increase in 2026, with EBITDA expected to fall 19% this year then rebound by 10% next year. At an enterprise value of $4.5 billion, Fluor trades at roughly nine times forward EBITDA and under one times projected sales, levels that suggest limited downside given execution improvements. Revenue growth in 2024 of 5% was driven by urban solutions, offsetting declines in energy and mission services, and sets a baseline for the anticipated recovery in core segments.

Starboard Value took a nearly 5% position in Fluor in October 2025 and is pressing for monetization of the company’s 39% stake in NuScale Power. Proceeds from partial NuScale sales—already totaling $605 million through early October—could fund share buybacks or debt reduction while shares still trade at depressed multiples. Successful divestiture of the remaining stake in the second quarter of 2026 would unlock further liquidity and provide a concrete catalyst for gradual stock recovery over the next 12 months.