Ford in Talks with Geely for Valencia Output, Cuts 2025 Cashflow to $2–3B

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Ford is in advanced talks with China's Geely to manufacture Geely vehicles at Ford's Valencia, Spain plant and share automated driving technologies, potentially bypassing EU tariffs. The automaker posted a 5.3% drop in U.S. January sales to 135,362 units and cut its 2025 adjusted free cash flow guidance to $2–3B.

1. Automakers Endorse Rollback of Fuel Economy Standards with Modifications

Ford joined seven other major automakers in publicly supporting the Trump administration’s proposal to reduce national fuel economy requirements from a targeted fleet average of 50 miles per gallon by 2026 to approximately 40 miles per gallon. In their joint letter to the Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the group requested adjustments to the compliance curve for model years 2023–2026 and sought greater inclusion of off-cycle credits for advanced technologies. The automakers argued that the revised standard would lower vehicle costs by an average of $1,200 per unit, potentially boosting industry-wide profitability by an estimated $15 billion over the next five years.

2. Ford’s January U.S. Sales Dip on Weak EV Performance

Ford reported U.S. retail deliveries of 135,362 vehicles in January, down 5.3% compared with the same month last year. Declines were broad-based across SUVs and trucks, with F-Series pickup sales falling 2.1% to 52,743 units. EV sales were particularly soft, with Mustang Mach-E volumes plunging 38% year-over-year to just 4,112 units as competition intensified and inventory constraints emerged. Ford’s overall market share slipped to 13.2%, down from 14.0% a year ago.

3. Advanced Talks with Geely on European Manufacturing and Technology Collaboration

Sources indicate Ford is in advanced negotiations with China’s Geely to allow production of Geely-branded vehicles at Ford’s Valencia, Spain assembly plant. Discussions also cover co-development of automated driving systems and shared electric powertrain components. Ford dispatched senior executives to Beijing in January, following meetings in Dearborn, and participants say the deal could add as many as 50,000 annual units at Valencia by 2027. The partnership would help Ford offset fixed-cost underutilization in Europe, while giving Geely tariff-free access to the European Union.

4. Q4 Earnings Preview Highlights Cyclical Pressures and Cash Flow Guidance

Analysts expect Ford’s fourth-quarter adjusted operating margin to contract to 3.5%, down from 4.2% in the prior year, reflecting increased commodity costs and slower pricing. Full-year 2025 guidance for adjusted free cash flow was trimmed to a range of $2.0 billion to $3.0 billion, compared with $3.5 billion posted in 2024. Revenue growth is forecast at just 1% for the quarter, driven by flat North American volume and limited price increases. Investors will focus on management’s strategies to stabilize margin and deleverage the balance sheet as debt-to-equity approaches 2.0x.

Sources

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