From Iran to trade: how the US midterms impact the rest of the world

The Democrats’ victories have prompted debate over how Trump’s loss of control over Congress could affect the conflict with Iran. Two sources familiar with Gulf government thinking said some governments believe Trump has more reason to seek a peace deal and is less likely to launch another full-scale assault, though an Iranian reading of the result as weakness could also invite escalation. The conflict has disrupted Gulf crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, raising fuel costs; oil fell for a third day on Wednesday, while tight stock levels limited the decline.

Democrats will be able to propose new aid to Ukraine, but any increase is unlikely to come quickly and would not address the country’s shortage of US-made Patriot interceptors. In trade, analysts said the election could encourage some Asian countries to slow investment pledges made to avoid tariffs and give China a perceived advantage in talks. A former Indian trade secretary said Trump’s capacity to impose tariffs would face a challenge, though Democratic efforts to limit his powers could face a presidential veto.

Voter concerns about the expansion of AI data centres weighed on shares of major Asian chip manufacturers. Asian chip and AI stocks including TSMC, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Kioxia fell on Wednesday, while US data-centre operators Applied Digital, TeraWulf, Core Scientific and Iren also declined in pre-market trading.