Galaxy Digital: Clarity Act Passing Probability Plummets to 50% Beyond Mid-May
Galaxy Digital estimates the Clarity Act’s chance of passing this year has fallen to roughly 50% if markup slips past mid-May, down from 82% in February, while Polymarket prices a 47% probability. Senate delays on Iran authorization, DHS funding and looming recess risks threaten federal crypto regulation.
1. Passage Probability Declines
Galaxy Digital’s head of research warns that if the Senate markup slips past mid-May, the odds of the Clarity Act passing this year drop sharply to about 50%, a steep decline from 82% in February, with Polymarket indicators reflecting a 47% likelihood.
2. Senate Workflow Constraints
The Senate is balancing debate on Iran military authorization, unresolved Department of Homeland Security funding, and a backlog of presidential nominations, while a packed schedule leading up to the August recess and intensified campaigning afterwards diminishes legislative bandwidth.
3. Bipartisan Support Dynamics
The Clarity Act garnered rare cross-party backing in July 2025, passing the House 294–134, driven by presidential executive support, Senate Banking Committee leadership, the Genius Act precedent, and $133 million in crypto industry lobbying—conditions that may not endure.