Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster projects Tesla will deliver approximately 415,000 vehicles in Q4, a 16% decline year-over-year and below the consensus estimate of 449,000. This follows a record Q3 of 497,099 deliveries, boosted by a last-minute rush to qualify for the U.S. federal EV tax credit before its Sept. 30 expiration. Last year’s Q4 deliveries stood at 495,570. Munster attributes the anticipated drop primarily to the credit sunset rather than a fundamental demand collapse.

Despite expected volume declines, Tesla could gain share as U.S. EV sales are forecast to fall 30% year-over-year in Q4, per Cox Automotive, suggesting Tesla’s 16% drop equates to relative share growth. Historically, Tesla share price has swung sharply on delivery misses, but with growing investor focus on AI initiatives such as Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi, delivery volatility may have a diminished market impact, providing greater share-price stability even if Q4 figures underperform.

Munster and other analysts increasingly regard Tesla as a leader in physical artificial intelligence, valuing its FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot programs as the primary long-term drivers. With a current market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, Tesla trades at a sum-of-the-parts premium well above pure automotive peers. Munster’s sum-of-the-parts valuation approaches $4 trillion, reflecting expectations that AI and robotics could surpass the traditional auto business in value creation.

Following the Q4 report, attention will shift to Tesla’s 2026 delivery guidance. Munster forecasts full-year 2026 volumes will be flat to up 5%, below the Street’s 13% growth estimate, but sufficient to indicate stabilization after an anticipated 8% decline for full-year 2025. He believes that once deliveries have bottomed, Tesla can return to annual unit growth of at least 15%, particularly as many competitors scale back EV investments.