Global diesel shortages could persist well into 2027, IEA says
USO•Global diesel markets could remain tight well into 2027 as conflicts curb output from the Middle East and Russia, the IEA said. Combined diesel export losses from the two regions reached 1.3 million barrels per day in September, while refinery recovery expected later this year is unlikely to offset the accumulated deficit.
1. Diesel supply under strain
The IEA said global diesel markets could remain tight well into 2027, with high prices raising inflation and weighing on economic growth. Combined diesel export losses from the Middle East and Russia totalled 1.3 million barrels per day in September, about 4.5% of the agency’s forecast global diesel and gas oil demand for this year.
2. Recovery may not fill deficit
A recovery in global refinery operations expected toward year-end should begin replenishing stocks, but the IEA said it would not offset the deficit in middle distillates, including diesel, gasoil and jet fuel. Global gasoil supply and demand are forecast to remain tight in the first half of 2027 before easing in the second half.
3. Oil reserves and outlook
The IEA said its members had released 331 million barrels from emergency stocks by the end of September, out of an agreement covering 426 million barrels. Global oil supply is forecast to fall by 5.8 million barrels per day this year before rising by 7.7 million barrels per day in 2027, when the market is expected to return to surplus.
