Global ex-U.S. ETF Jumps 40% Since 2025 as S&P 500 ETF Ratio Hits Death Cross
Since January 2025, the global ex-U.S. ETF has rallied 40% versus the S&P 500 ETF’s 15% gain, reversing over a decade of relative underperformance. In early 2026, ratio between S&P 500 and global ex-U.S. ETFs saw a death cross when its 50-week moving average fell below the 100-week average.
1. Decade of U.S. Equity Dominance
From 2011 through early 2025, the S&P 500 ETF outpaced the global ex-U.S. ETF by more than 300 percentage points, reflecting nearly uninterrupted U.S. equity leadership in the post-financial-crisis era.
2. Performance Shift Since 2025
Since the start of 2025, the global ex-U.S. ETF has surged approximately 40% while the S&P 500 ETF has gained roughly 15%, marking a significant reversal of the prior ten-plus years of relative underperformance.
3. Death Cross Technical Signal
In early 2026, the ratio of the S&P 500 ETF to the global ex-U.S. ETF triggered a death cross as its 50-week moving average dropped below the 100-week moving average, a pattern last sustained in 2018.
4. Emerging Markets Leading
The ex-U.S. rally has been led by key markets including South Korea, Brazil, Mexico and Taiwan, suggesting a broader structural rotation rather than a temporary pullback in U.S. equity leadership.