Global Ex-U.S. Stocks Rally 40% Versus S&P 500 ETF’s 15%, Death Cross Emerges
Since early 2025, SPDR S&P 500 ETF lagged global ex-U.S. equities by about 25 percentage points as MSCI ACWX ETF jumped 40% versus SPY’s 15% gain. In early 2026, the SPY/ACWX ratio’s 50-week moving average fell below its 100-week average, signaling its first sustained death cross since 2018.
1. Decade-Long U.S. Outperformance
From 2011 through early 2025, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF outperformed the iShares MSCI ACWX ETF by more than 300 percentage points, reinforcing U.S. equities as the dominant global allocation for investors.
2. Underperformance Since 2025
Since the start of 2025, ACWX has surged roughly 40% while SPY has advanced about 15%, resulting in a relative underperformance of around 25 percentage points for U.S. equities.
3. Rare Death Cross Technical Signal
In early 2026, the 50-week moving average of the SPY/ACWX ratio dropped below its 100-week moving average, marking a sustained death cross not seen since a brief signal in 2018.
4. Emerging Markets Lead New Leadership Cycle
Global investors are rebalancing away from U.S. concentration, with standout performance from South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Taiwan and Japan driving the shift toward international equities.