Global Lithium Demand to Exceed 13.2 Million Tonnes by 2050, Deficits by 2028
An Energy Transition Outlook report projects global lithium demand will exceed 13.2 million tonnes by 2050 under a net-zero pathway, creating supply deficits by 2028 without $104–$276 billion of new investment. EVs will consume 72–80% of lithium and SQM plans 30% production growth to meet a 25% demand increase this year.
1. Demand Projections Through 2050
The Energy Transition Outlook outlines four scenarios, with lithium demand ranging from 5.6 Mt under a delayed transition to 13.2 Mt under a net-zero pathway by 2050, more than doubling base-case forecasts and triggering structural deficits as early as 2028.
2. Investment Requirements to Bridge the Gap
Meeting mid-century demand will require $104 billion under a delayed transition, $114 billion in the base case, $236 billion under country pledges and $276 billion in a net-zero world, highlighting a $100–$275 billion capital deployment challenge.
3. EVs and Storage as Primary Drivers
Electric vehicles will account for 72–80% of total lithium consumption, while energy storage systems also emerge as a significant growth segment, underscoring lithium’s critical role in transport and power sectors.
4. SQM’s Production Expansion Plans
Top producer SQM forecasts a 25% increase in global lithium demand this year and is targeting roughly 30% production growth through its Atacama joint venture with Codelco to capitalize on tightening market balances.