Global M&A deal rush fades in third quarter as rising borrowing costs bite
TLT•Global M&A totaled $993 billion in the third quarter, down 41% from the second quarter and the first quarterly total below $1 trillion since Q2 2025. Asia-Pacific deal value rose 8% quarter over quarter to $242 billion.
1. Deal value retreats
Global M&A activity totaled $993 billion in the three months through September, down 41% from the second quarter and marking the first sub-$1 trillion quarter since Q2 2025. There were 10 deals worth more than $10 billion, the fewest quarterly megadeals since Q4 2024.
2. Rates and regional trends
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, as borrowing costs and inflation weighed on dealmaking. John Collins, Morgan Stanley’s global head of M&A, said higher yields can make valuations tougher, but that their impact is difficult to quantify. Asia-Pacific M&A rose 8% from the second quarter and 36% from a year earlier to $242 billion, while U.S. and European dealmaking fell sharply.
3. Year-to-date activity
Worldwide M&A was up 28% year to date to $3.9 trillion, the highest level for that period since 2001, even as the number of deals fell 8%. Strategic purchases of stakes in technology companies accounted for about one-quarter of global M&A so far this year. Cross-border dealmaking rose 32% year over year, while bankers said higher rates and uncertainty had prompted caution around some technology and AI-related deals.
