Global Markets-Asia tech shares rally, others hesitant as oil rises

In currency markets, the dollar index got only a mild lift from the jobs report as worries about ever-growing U.S. debt and policy uncertainties erode the purchasing power of the currency. President Donald Trump caused a stir on Friday when he posted a warning that he would cease international trade with countries running a trade surplus with the United States if the Fed did not slash interest rates as he wanted. The dollar index =USD stood at 99.135, not far from recent lows of 98.558. The euro held at $1.1610 EUR=EBS, within sight of the August top of $1.1711. The single currency had political troubles of its own as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged into first place in state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, though it was still short of a majority. The dollar was a tick easier at 156.11 yen JPY=EBS, and still threatening major support at 155.00 after losing 2.4% last week as the yen rallied on speculation about a more aggressive BoJ tightening. Rising bond yields remain a drag for equity valuations, with Treasury 10-year yields US10YT=RR near their highest since late 2023 at 4.7840%. A high CPI reading would likely see yields edge closer to the psychological 5.0% barrier. In commodities, gold slipped 0.5% to $4,406 an ounce XAU=, after finding support at $4,282 last week. GOL/ That inflationary impulse raises the stakes for a key reading of U.S. consumer prices this week, and is a major reason the European Central Bank is seen as certain to lift rates to 2.75% on Thursday. Futures also imply a 75% chance of another hike to 3.0% by December. 0#EURIRPR The risk of hawkish guidance from the ECB after the rate hike is likely to keep European stocks on edge on Monday. EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1, DAX futures FDXc1 and FTSE futures FFIc1 were all down 0.1%. On Wall Street, a U.S. holiday kept turnover light with both S&P 500 futures ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 a fraction lower. A key focus this week is the U.S. August CPI report on Friday where median forecasts are for a rise of 0.2% in the core, with a risk of 0.3%. For the Federal Reserve, last week's upbeat payrolls report has left markets pricing a 58% chance of a hike when it meets on September 16, and 70% for a move in October. 0#USDIRPR CENTRAL BANKS 'ON THE MOVE' Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan, is looking for core CPI to rise 0.21% which he thinks would be low enough to keep the Fed on hold, if only for now. Likewise, markets are pricing in a 75% chance the Bank of Japan will raise rates a quarter point at its meeting on September 18, with a 60% probability of another move by December.0#JPYIRPR "Central bank patience through the energy shock has been supportive of asset prices and the credit cycle," said Kasman. "However, central banks are now on the move." "We forecast two more hikes from the ECB and BoJ before year-end," he added. "There is also a strong case for the Fed to move earlier and more aggressively than our baseline forecast for a December hike." Asian tech shares rallied on Monday as the robust U.S. jobs report was seen as positive for global growth even as it narrowed the odds on a rise in interest rates, while oil edged higher after the U.S. and Iran attacked ships in the Gulf. Tehran said it will announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in coming days, after U.S. forces hit three Iranian tankers and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy ships. As a result, Brent added 0.7% to reach $96.97 a barrel LCOc1, having climbed almost 8% last week, while U.S. crude rose 0.8% to $92.24 a barrel CLc1. That's not good news for diesel prices, which hit record highs last week. That's the fuel that matters most for transport, shipping, farming and manufacturing.

Global Markets-Asia tech shares rally, others hesitant as oil rises

Currencies, bonds and commodities

Fed, ECB and BoJ rate outlook in focus

Asia shares rise as tech leads and oil edges higher

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