GM, Ford to see U.S. market-share slide, forecaster predicts
GM•Cox Automotive expects Ford’s U.S. sales to fall 8.8% through the first three quarters, lowering its share to 12.5%, and GM sales to decline 6.2%, lowering its share to 16.7%. The Detroit Three’s combined share is projected to reach a record low of around 36%.
1. Market share forecast
Cox Automotive expects Ford’s vehicle sales to drop 8.8% through the first three quarters of the year, bringing its U.S. market share down nearly a percentage point to 12.5%. GM sales are projected to decline 6.2% year to date through September 30, with a 16.7% share, down from 17.4% a year earlier. The declines would be the steepest among 13 automakers tracked by Cox.
2. Hybrids and competition
The combined U.S. market share of GM, Ford and Stellantis is expected to reach an all-time low of around 36%, despite Stellantis gaining share. Cox projects Hyundai and Kia together will outsell Ford in the third quarter for the first time. Ford said it outsold the two companies combined year to date and had higher revenue.
3. Industry outlook
Cox expects Toyota sales to rise 1.1% and Honda sales to increase 5.6% through three quarters. It raised its full-year U.S. vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million from 15.8 million. Analysts cited the appeal of fuel-efficient vehicles amid high gas prices; Ford also faced lower pickup production after a fire at an aluminum supplier.
