GM Q1 Forecast Sees $43.7B Revenue, $750M–$1B Tariff Hit
Analysts forecast GM’s first-quarter revenue at $43.68 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.62, down from $44 billion in Q1 2025. The automaker projects a $750 million–$1 billion tariff hit, full-year gross tariff costs of $3–$4 billion, a 9.7% US sales decline to 626,429 units, and a 19% EV sales drop.
1. Q1 Revenue and EPS Estimates
GM is expected to report first-quarter revenue of $43.68 billion, a slight decrease from $44 billion in Q1 2025, with adjusted earnings per share forecast at $2.62. Analysts anticipate minor upside to full-year targets following this release.
2. Tariff Exposure and Cost Management
The company projects a Q1 tariff burden of $750 million–$1 billion, tied to imports from Mexico, Canada and South Korea. GM forecasts full-year gross tariff costs of $3–$4 billion and has used MSRP adjustments to mitigate some exposure.
3. US Market Sales Trends
First-quarter US vehicle sales fell 9.7% year-over-year to 626,429 units, though GM retained its market leadership. Full-size pickups led volumes with over 128,000 Silverado deliveries, while Tahoe, Suburban and Yukon SUVs remained strong.
4. EV Performance and Structural Transformation
EV sales declined 19% in Q1 after $6.6 billion in EV-related charges in H2 2025, with smaller charges expected in 2026. GM’s connected services bundles, including OnStar and SuperCruise with 70% gross margins, are projected to generate $7.5 billion in deferred revenue for FY26, supporting a sum-of-the-parts valuation implying roughly 31.7% upside.