Goldman Sachs Cuts 2026 PC Shipments Forecast 10%, AI PCs to Hit 59%
Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 PC shipment forecast by 10% to 257 million units, citing rising memory costs and a cooling replacement cycle. It predicts AI-capable PCs will reach 150 million units (59% penetration) next year and drive a 2% rebound in 2027, rising to 81% share by 2028.
1. Revised PC Shipment Forecast
Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 global PC shipment outlook by 10% to 257 million units, attributing the downgrade to a flattening replacement cycle after late-2025 upgrade pull-ins. This marks a steeper decline than prior estimates and signals ongoing weakness in overall demand.
2. Margin Pressures from Rising Material Costs
Analysts warn that a surge in memory and raw material expenses is squeezing margins on entry-level PCs, forcing manufacturers to either raise prices or shift focus toward higher-end models that can better absorb cost inflation.
3. AI PC Growth and Market Share Evolution
The firm forecasts AI-capable PCs will account for 150 million unit shipments in 2026—59% of the market—and expects a modest 2% recovery in 2027. By 2028, AI PCs are projected to represent 81% of total shipments, favoring premium hardware suppliers pivoting to edge computing capabilities.