Goldman Sachs Cuts Recession Risk to 15%, Raises H2 GDP Forecast to 2%
GS•Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from 20% following the U.S-Iran deal, raising H2 GDP growth forecast to 2% on lower gas prices. It foresees consumer prices falling in June with core CPI at 0.17% over three months and expects no further Fed rate hikes.
1. Recession Probability and Outlook
Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from 20% following the U.S.-Iran deal, citing stronger labor market resilience as a key factor.
2. GDP and Consumer Spending Forecast
The firm raised its second-half GDP growth outlook to 2% and projects real consumer spending growth of 1.5% as the temporary boost from higher tax refunds in Q2 fades.
3. Inflation Trends and Fed Rate Expectations
Goldman Sachs anticipates a drop in seasonally adjusted consumer prices in June with core CPI averaging 0.17% over the next three months and maintains a baseline of no further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
4. Marcus CD Rate
Marcus by Goldman Sachs is offering a 14-month certificate of deposit at 4% APY, well above the 1.65% average for one-year CDs.
