Goldman Sachs Lifts 2026 Current Account Forecast to 4.3% After $242B Surplus
Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 current account surplus forecast to 4.3% of GDP, up from 4.1%, following a record $242 billion quarterly surplus that helped push China's goods trade surplus to $1.2 trillion last year. Premier Li pledged services access and increased medical imports to balance manufacturing dominance and ease protectionist pressures.
1. Goldman Sachs Forecast Revision
Goldman Sachs Group revised its 2026 current account surplus forecast to 4.3% of GDP from 4.1%, reflecting preliminary data that showed a record $242 billion surplus in the most recent quarter.
2. Record China Goods Trade Surplus
China's exports surged more than 20% in the first two months of 2026, contributing to a historic $1.2 trillion goods trade surplus last year and intensifying concerns over global trade imbalances.
3. Policy Measures and Trade Tensions
Premier Li Qiang vowed to expand services access and boost medical imports to counterbalance manufacturing dominance, aiming to defuse potential protectionist measures among major trading partners.