Goldman Sachs Lifts LTL and Truckload Estimates, Cites 30% Higher Q2 Rates
GS•Goldman Sachs has raised earnings estimates and price targets for less-than-truckload and truckload carriers through 2028, noting sector stocks rallied roughly 70% since June 2025 and 46% year-to-date. The bank cites Q2 LTL volume and pricing gains outpacing forecasts and truckload spot rates averaging 30% higher year-over-year.
1. Earnings Estimate Increases
Goldman Sachs has increased its earnings and price target forecasts for the less-than-truckload and truckload sectors through 2028, citing improving freight fundamentals and stronger-than-expected recovery scenarios. The firm also elevated its blue sky projections to reflect a more pronounced cyclical rebound than previously modeled.
2. LTL Carrier Momentum
In the LTL segment, mid-quarter updates show Q2 shipment volumes and pricing trends running ahead of earlier forecasts, with the pace of year-over-year volume decline easing faster than anticipated. Goldman Sachs highlights the potential for a volume inflection later this year, supported by improving manufacturing indicators and favorable fuel-related profit dynamics.
3. Truckload Rate Strength
For truckload transportation, spot freight rates excluding fuel averaged approximately 30% above year-ago levels in Q2, with recent price increases topping 40%. Contract renewals are expected to see rate hikes in the high-single to low-double-digit percentages, prompting the bank to raise revenue-per-mile and profit projections for H2 2026 and beyond.
