Goldman Sachs Lowers 2027 Brent Forecast to $80 Over Supply Surge
GS•Goldman Sachs now forecasts Brent crude at an $80 average per barrel in 2027, down from prior estimates due to rising non-OPEC output and weak fuel demand. The bank anticipates over 10% of China’s oil demand slump persisting as EV adoption accelerates and Gulf exports normalize later.
1. Forecast Revision
Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2027 Brent crude outlook to an $80 per barrel average, reflecting lower anticipated demand and higher projected supply compared to earlier estimates.
2. Supply Factors
Analysts cited ramped-up production among non-OPEC exporters including the US, Brazil, Guyana and the UAE, plus normalized Gulf exports, as key drivers of increased market supply.
3. Demand Concerns
The firm expects over 10% of current demand weakness to endure, driven by China’s pivot to electric vehicles and alternative transport, with gasoline consumption down as much as 20% year-on-year in April.
4. Scenario Analysis
A prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could push Brent above $110–$140 per barrel, while an earlier reopening might send prices down to $60–$70 per barrel in 2027.
