Goldman Sachs: PE Distributions Fall to 9%-13%, Dollar Bulls See 90% Fed Hike Odds

GS•

2026-07-06

Goldman Sachs reports private equity distributions fell to 9%-13% annually since 2022 from a 20%-25% average, spurring $14.4 billion in Apollo hybrid funding. Traders see a 90% chance of a July Fed hike, driving dollar strength to 2015 highs and potentially pressuring GS trading revenues.

1. Private Equity Liquidity Squeeze

Goldman Sachs research shows private equity cash distributions have averaged 9%-13% annually since 2022, down from a long-term 20%-25% range. This liquidity crunch has propelled alternative hybrid financing solutions, exemplified by Apollo raising $14.4 billion across three closed-end hybrid funds, including $6.5 billion in its latest close.

2. Record Dollar Bullishness and FX Implications

Currency traders are assigning roughly a 90% probability to a July Federal Reserve rate increase, lifting dollar bullish sentiment to levels unseen since 2015. Strength in the dollar could compress margins for Goldman Sachs's global markets division, as FX trading volumes and client hedging demand adjust to a higher-rate environment.