Goldman Sachs Tops Q4 EPS Estimates with Strong IB Fees, Apple Card Losses
Goldman Sachs reported Q4 EPS above consensus, driven by robust investment banking and trading fees, but expenses rose. Platform Solutions incurred significant losses related to Apple Card loan portfolio, highlighting ongoing challenges in consumer finance operations.
1. Strong Q4 Earnings and Capital Returns
Goldman Sachs reported fourth-quarter EPS of $14.01, surpassing consensus by approximately 15% and driving a 17.1% return on tangible equity. Fee-based revenue rose by 8% year-over-year, led by client advisory and trading commissions. The firm increased its quarterly dividend by 12.5% and executed $2.5 billion in common stock repurchases during the quarter, reflecting robust capital generation and disciplined return-of-capital strategy.
2. Bullish Investment Banking Outlook for 2026
Bank of America Securities analyst Ebrahim Poonawala raised his price target to $1,100 with a Buy rating, forecasting 15% growth in investment banking fees and 3% growth in markets revenue next year. He cited a strong pipeline of M&A and IPO mandates, a more favorable regulatory landscape, and the tailwind of declining interest rates to support deal volume. Over the past four quarters, Goldman Sachs has outpaced consensus EPS estimates by roughly 15%, underpinning the optimistic projections.
3. Strategic Exploration of Prediction Markets
CEO David Solomon confirmed that Goldman has formed a dedicated team to evaluate opportunities in prediction market platforms regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He met with leadership teams from two leading prediction market providers for multi-hour deep dives into contract structures and institutional use cases. While Solomon emphasized the long-term strategic potential, he cautioned that regulatory developments could progress more slowly than some market participants expect.
4. Exceptional Total Return and Valuation Upside
In 2025, Goldman Sachs delivered a total stock return of nearly 57%, outpacing both the S&P 500 and its large-cap peers. The shares currently trade at a forward P/E multiple of 18.7x, slightly above the five-year average of 17.8x. With sustained fee growth, disciplined expense management, and ongoing capital returns, many analysts see potential for the multiple to expand toward 20x over the next two to three years.