Goldman Sachs Q4 Profit Rises on Trading Strength and Apple Card Exit

GSGS

Goldman Sachs’ fourth-quarter profit rose due to stronger trading revenues in a turbulent market and increased dealmaking activity. The results also included a one-time gain from exiting its Apple credit card partnership, contributing to the quarterly earnings boost.

1. Goldman Sachs CEO Advocates Growth-Oriented Agenda

In a 30-minute appearance on Squawk Box, Chairman and CEO David Solomon outlined a strategic shift toward a more growth-oriented operating model. Solomon emphasized prioritizing technology investments—pointing to a planned $2.5 billion increase in annual tech spending—and expanding the firm’s consumer banking division by targeting 10 million new retail accounts over the next three years. He also discussed regulatory expectations under the new administration, projecting no major capital requirement changes, while warning that proposed tariff measures on imports could add 15 to 20 basis points to corporate borrowing costs. On digital assets, Solomon reiterated Goldman’s intention to launch two additional blockchain-based platforms in 2025 and maintain its current $500 million exposure to cryptocurrencies, all while advancing diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives tied to executive compensation metrics starting this quarter.

2. Q4 Profit Climbs on Dealmaking, Trading and One-Time Gain

Goldman Sachs reported a fourth-quarter net income of $2.3 billion, up 24% year-over-year, driven by record investment banking fees and strong fixed-income trading revenue. Advisory and underwriting fees surged 30% to $1.8 billion as the firm completed its largest ever life sciences IPO and advised on three of the year’s top five M&A deals, totaling $150 billion in transaction value. Fixed-income, currency and commodities trading revenue grew 18% to $3.4 billion amid market volatility. The results also benefited from a one-time accounting gain of $700 million related to the wind-down of the Apple Card joint venture.

3. Caution on Copper Rally Highlights Research Bias

In its January commodities note, Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that while fundamental drivers—such as a 4% rise in global mine output and 6% growth in Chinese smelter throughput—justify part of copper’s rally, speculative inflows accounted for roughly 70% of the 22% price increase since mid-2024. The team now forecasts a near-term 10% correction from current levels, citing inventory restocking in major exchanges and hedge fund positioning as potential catalysts. They recommend reducing net long exposure in their industrial metals indices ahead of expected profit-taking.

4. Wall Street Raises Fourth-Quarter Estimates Ahead of Earnings

With the January 15th release looming, the firm’s earnings estimates have been revised upward by Goldman’s most accurate analysts on Wall Street. The consensus forecast for fourth-quarter revenue has increased by 3% to $13.2 billion, while projected EPS climbed 5% to $9.10, reflecting ongoing strength in advisory and trading businesses. Several firms, including KBW and Morgan Stanley, cited momentum in debt capital markets as the primary driver of their upgrades, while others flagged potential upside from margin expansion if deposit costs stabilize. Investors will also watch for commentary on the firm’s capital return plans and any update to its quarterly dividend policy.

Sources

RBYMB