Goldman Sachs Raises Union Pacific Price Target to $267 After Q4 EPS Miss
Goldman Sachs raised Union Pacific's price target from $259 to $267 while retaining a Neutral rating after Q4 EPS of $2.86, missing the $2.90 estimate, and revenues fell 1% to $6.08B. The company saw a 4% carload decline and plans $3.3B in 2026 capital expenditures with mid-single-digit EPS growth guidance.
1. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results
Union Pacific reported fourth‐quarter net income of $1.8 billion, including $234 million from industrial park land sales, resulting in diluted EPS of $3.11. Adjusted EPS stood at $2.86, down from $2.96 a year earlier. Operating revenue declined 1% to $6.1 billion due to lower volumes, partially offset by core pricing gains and fuel surcharges. For the full year, net income reached a record $7.1 billion and EPS rose 8% to $11.98. Freight revenue excluding fuel surcharge grew 3%, while full‐year operating revenue increased 1% to $24.5 billion. Reported operating ratio improved 10 basis points to 59.8%, with adjusted operating ratio at 59.3%, a 60‐basis‐point improvement year-over-year.
2. Operational Performance and Productivity Gains
Union Pacific delivered best‐ever safety and service metrics in 2025. Freight car velocity climbed 9% to 239 daily miles per car, and terminal dwell improved 9% to 19.8 hours. Average train length increased 3% to 9,729 feet, and workforce productivity rose 3% to 1,151 car miles per employee. Reportable personal injury and derailment rates both improved, with the personal injury rate remaining industry-leading. These efficiency gains helped lower the adjusted fourth-quarter operating ratio to 60.0%, despite revenue carloads falling 4% year-over-year.
3. 2026 Outlook and Capital Allocation
Union Pacific guides for mid-single-digit EPS growth consistent with its three-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digits through 2027. The company plans approximately $3.3 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 to support network enhancements and capacity projects. Management expects continued operating ratio improvement and strong cash generation to fund annual dividend increases and share repurchases. Strategic initiatives include advancing a transcontinental railroad project subject to regulatory approval and pursuing cost savings and service enhancements to meet customer demand.