Analysts at Goldman Sachs project a 900,000-ton aluminum shortfall in the second quarter, marking the largest deficit since early 2022. This forecast reflects mounting supply pressures following recent disruptions and diminishing buffer stocks in major consuming regions.

Global aluminum inventories have been drawn down to a 45-day coverage level, matching the lowest point seen in 2022. Meanwhile, European premiums for aluminum billet have jumped 63%, and spot contracts on the London Metal Exchange are trading at a premium to futures, indicating tight immediate supply.

Iranian drone and missile strikes damaged key Gulf smelters, including facilities in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain, which together account for over 3.2 million tons of annual capacity. Regional producers Qatalum and Alba have already cut output by approximately 40% and 19%, respectively, intensifying the global squeeze.