Goldman Sachs sees German export growth strengthening as demand recovers
EWG•Goldman Sachs sees Germany’s export outlook improving, supported by stronger Western demand, productivity-driven competitiveness gains and global AI infrastructure investment.
1. Export outlook improves
Goldman Sachs sees Germany’s export outlook improving materially. US-bound exports remained materially below pre-tariff levels in the second quarter of 2026, though the shortfall has narrowed since late 2025; EU trade has been a significant tailwind since early 2025, with manufacturing sales and orders rising.
2. Industry trends diverge
AI-exposed goods materially outperformed total exports over the past year, boosting German electronics and electrical equipment manufacturers. Chemical and intermediate-goods export gains in early 2026 may partly reverse as precautionary purchases fade, while Chinese competition remains a medium-term challenge.
