Goldman Sachs Sees Gulf Oil Exports at Two-Thirds Normal, Bullish on Dollar
GS•Goldman Sachs forecasts Persian Gulf oil exports at nearly two-thirds of normal levels as visible global inventory declines slow, highlighting a fragile geopolitical risk premium even with rising flows. Its strategists also project the US dollar could strengthen versus lower-yielding, oil-sensitive currencies following renewed Fed rate-hike expectations.
1. Fragile Oil Geopolitical Risk Premium
Goldman Sachs commodity strategists note that after a container ship was struck southeast of Oman, Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to nearly two-thirds of normal capacity, yet visible global inventory declines have slowed. This dynamic underscores that the market’s geopolitical risk premium remains fragile even as physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz improve.
2. Bullish US Dollar Outlook
Goldman Sachs currency strategists project further gains in the US dollar, particularly against lower-yielding and oil-sensitive currencies, as expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes gain traction. The firm highlights that resilient US economic data and potential policy divergence with other central banks could drive the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index higher through the remainder of the year.
