Goldman Sachs sees US existing home sales falling in 2027 as mortgage rates weigh
GS•Goldman Sachs expects US existing-home sales to fall to 3.9 million in 2027 from 4 million in 2026, with home-price growth slowing to 0.8%. It forecasts 30-year mortgage rates at 6.4% in 2027, down from 7.32% as of October 22.
1. Housing forecast
Goldman Sachs expects higher mortgage rates to outweigh US housing shortages in 2027, reducing existing-home sales and new construction. It projects 3.9 million existing-home sales, 26% below 2019 levels, and home prices rising 0.8% December-over-December, compared with 1.1% in 2026. The firm expects 30-year mortgage rates to decline to 6.4% in 2027 from 7.32% as of October 22. More than 95% of mortgage borrowers hold below-market rates, creating a lock-in effect that discourages sales and constrains housing activity.
