Goldman Sachs Warns Hormuz Tensions Could Delay Return of 1MM bpd Gulf Crude
GS•GS•GS•GS•Goldman Sachs analysts warn that fresh conflict around the Strait of Hormuz could delay the resumption of over one million barrels per day of suspended Gulf crude exports. They say delayed recovery in supply could tighten global inventories and keep Brent prices elevated into Q4 2026.
Goldman Sachs analysts have flagged renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz as a key risk that may push back the restart of more than one million barrels per day in Gulf crude exports. The team indicates this development diverges from previous forecasts that anticipated a steady recovery of supply by mid-2026.
The projected delay in restoring Gulf output is expected to erode global spare capacity and sustain tighter market balances. Goldman analysts caution that Brent crude could remain above $85 per barrel through Q4 2026 if inventories fail to return to seasonal averages.
