Goldman sees consumer resilience in the face of soaring oil
SPY•Goldman Sachs economists expect U.S. consumer spending to rise 2.5% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, supported by income growth and household wealth despite elevated energy prices and higher interest rates.
1. Spending outlook
Goldman Sachs economists estimate consumer spending will rise 2.5% in 2026 on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, with tax refunds and equity-market gains expected to more than offset higher energy costs in the second and third quarters. They forecast a near-potential 2.2% pace in 2027.
2. Income and wealth
The economists forecast real disposable income growth of 1.4% in 2026, rising to 2.3% in 2027 as inflation pressures fade and Social Security and other transfers receive cost-of-living adjustments. They expect high household wealth to support spending, though a fading wealth effect could weigh on consumption if AI-related stocks continue to decline.
