Goldman Upgrades Dutch Bros to Buy, Cites 29.4% Q4 Revenue Growth
Goldman Sachs upgraded Dutch Bros to Buy with a $75 target, highlighting stronger underlying operations and a recent stock pullback as a compelling entry point. In Q4 the coffee chain added 55 stores across 17 states, boosting revenue 29.4% to $443.6 million and adjusted EBITDA 48.8% to $72.6 million, while full-year revenue reached $1.64 billion and net income climbed to $117.3 million, and 2026 guidance calls for 181 new openings and $355–365 million in EBITDA.
1. Rating Upgrade
Goldman Sachs raised its rating on Dutch Bros from Neutral to Buy with a $75 price target, citing stronger underlying business performance and a recent stock decline as a buying opportunity.
2. Q4 Performance
In the fourth quarter, Dutch Bros opened 55 new stores across 17 states, including 52 company-operated units. Total revenue climbed 29.4% year-over-year to $443.6 million, system-wide same-store sales rose 7.7%, company-operated same-shop sales grew 9.7% with a 7.6% transaction increase, adjusted EBITDA soared 48.8% to $72.6 million, and net income jumped to $29.2 million from $6.4 million.
3. Full-Year Results
For fiscal 2025, revenue rose 28.1% to $1.64 billion and net income increased to $117.3 million from $66.5 million, reflecting the company’s rapid store expansion and sustained same-shop sales momentum.
4. 2026 Guidance
Management forecasts at least 181 new store openings, adjusted EBITDA of $355 million to $365 million, 3%–5% same-shop sales growth, revenue of $2.0 billion to $2.03 billion, and capital expenditures of $270 million to $290 million for the 2026 fiscal year.