Grab Acquires Infermove and Faces Indonesian Commission Cap at 10%
Grab acquired Chinese AI robotics firm Infermove to automate last-mile delivery, complementing its integrated super app services which generated Q3 revenues of $873 million in mobility (up 22%) and $465 million in deliveries (up 23%). Proposed Indonesian rules capping commissions at 10% and funding driver insurance pose margin risks.
1. Strong Multi-Segment Revenue Growth and Profitability
Grab’s third-quarter report highlighted robust growth across its core segments. Mobility revenue reached $873 million, up 22% year-over-year, driven by a 24% increase in on-demand gross merchandise value to $5.8 billion. The deliveries business, including food and grocery, generated $465 million in revenue, a 23% rise over the prior year, supported by advertising gains and expansion of GrabMart. Financial services, comprising digital payments and lending, contributed to an overall adjusted EBITDA of $136 million, a 51% improvement year-over-year, as Grab aims to build a $1 billion loan portfolio by the end of 2025. The group achieved profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis for the first time in 2025, underscoring its path toward sustainable cash flow generation.
2. Acquisition of Infermove Accelerates Last-Mile Automation
Earlier this month, Grab completed the acquisition of Infermove, a Chinese AI robotics start-up founded in 2021, to enhance first- and last-mile delivery capabilities. Infermove’s autonomous delivery robots and mixed-road driving systems will integrate with Grab’s logistics network to improve efficiency and reduce reliance on contracted drivers. The deal positions Grab at the forefront of automation in Southeast Asian e-commerce logistics, with the start-up continuing to operate under its existing leadership and leveraging Grab’s strong cash reserves for rapid scaling.
3. Regulatory Overhang in Indonesia Raises Cost Pressures
Grab faces mounting regulatory scrutiny in Indonesia, its largest and fastest-growing market. A draft presidential decree proposes to cut maximum ride-hailing commissions from 20% to 10%, mandate full accident and death insurance for drivers, and impose additional social protections. If enacted, these measures could significantly increase operating costs and compress margins across both mobility and delivery services. The regulatory push follows growing driver activism and intensifies antitrust concerns around a potential merger between Grab and local rival GoTo.
4. Valuation Concerns and Analyst Perspectives
Despite its operational momentum, Grab’s shares have retreated approximately 12% year-to-date and remain about 33% below their 52-week high, reflecting investor caution. The stock trades at roughly 150 times trailing earnings, highlighting elevated expectations for hyper-growth through 2027. Wall Street has taken mixed stances: HSBC recently upgraded Grab to a Buy with an implied upside of around 41%, while the broader consensus indicates potential gains of approximately 50% based on average analyst targets. Nonetheless, lingering execution risks, economic volatility in the region and regulatory uncertainties continue to temper enthusiasm among some investors.