Graphene Ventures sees leveraged AI infrastructure builders bearing brunt of potential correction
QQQ•Graphene Ventures warns that leveraged intermediaries could bear the brunt of a potential AI infrastructure correction. Four hyperscalers guided to roughly $700 billion to $725 billion in 2026 capital spending, while delays or cancellations could threaten 30% to 50% of 16 GW of scheduled U.S. data-center capacity.
1. Correction risks
Graphene Ventures’ analysis warns that leveraged AI infrastructure intermediaries could be hit hardest by a potential correction, despite highly profitable core buyers. Four hyperscalers guided to roughly $700 billion to $725 billion in 2026 capital spending, compared with about $97 billion for U.S. carriers in 2000.
2. Credit exposure
Severe delays or cancellations could threaten 30% to 50% of 16 GW in scheduled U.S. data-center capacity, while stranded GPUs lose value each quarter. The analysis identifies OpenAI as the central risk node and Oracle as the large credit most exposed to it, and expects credit stress before chip-sector losses. It does not forecast when a correction will occur.
