Green Plains reported Q4 net income of $11.9 million, or $0.17 per diluted share on a GAAP basis, comfortably exceeding consensus EPS forecasts of $0.02–$0.07. This compares with a net loss of $54.9 million, or $(0.86) per share, in the same quarter last year. The turnaround reflects disciplined cost control and favorable tax treatment of Clean Fuel Production Tax Credits under Section 45Z.

Total revenues for the quarter fell 26.6% year-over-year to $428.8 million, missing analyst projections in the $532–540 million range. The decline stems largely from the prior sale of the Obion, Tennessee plant and the discontinuation of third-party ethanol marketing arrangements, which together reduced segment volumes by approximately 30 million gallons versus Q4 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $49.1 million from a negative $18.2 million a year earlier. The improvement was driven by record ethanol yields at key facilities, tight working-capital management and a $27.7 million benefit recorded as an income tax credit from 45Z production tax credits. Ethanol crush margins recovered to $44.4 million compared with a negative $15.5 million in Q4 2024.

Green Plains has commissioned carbon capture at three Nebraska plants and projects generating at least $188 million of adjusted EBITDA from carbon-related activities in 2026, contingent on production volumes and carbon intensity factors. The company’s price-to-sales ratio near 0.4 and a current ratio of 1.79 underscore solid liquidity and potential upside as low-carbon initiatives scale.