Grocery Outlet Sees 12.5% Revenue Growth to $1.24B, EPS at $0.21
Grocery Outlet Holdings will report Q4 2025 earnings on March 4 with consensus revenue of $1.24 billion (+12.5% y/y) and EPS of $0.21 (+40% y/y) after averaging 29.9% surprise. Its off-price model and store refresh boost sales, but markdown-driven margins, 0.4% comps growth and an Earnings ESP of –0.04% curb beat odds.
1. Q4 Earnings Preview
On March 4 after market close, Grocery Outlet will report Q4 2025 results with consensus revenue of $1.24 billion (12.5% y/y) and EPS of $0.21 (40% y/y), following a 29.9% average earnings surprise over the past four quarters.
2. Growth Drivers
The company’s opportunistic off-price sourcing model, expansion of private-label offerings and broad rollout of its store refresh initiative are expected to support traffic, improve in-stock positions and strengthen its value proposition in a cautious consumer environment.
3. Headwinds & Beat Probability
Promotional markdowns and seasonal inventory reductions have pressured gross margins, comparable-store sales are forecast up just 0.4%, and an Earnings ESP of –0.04% with a rank of 4 suggests a low probability of an EPS beat.