Groupama Asset Management sees 25-basis-point Fed hike in December if data confirm outlook

TLT•2026-10-29

Groupama Asset Management expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points on December 9 if upcoming data confirm strengthening activity and elevated inflation.

1. Data to guide decision

Third-quarter 2026 GDP, business surveys and inflation data will be key to the assessment. Policymakers held rates unchanged, with two dissenting votes, seeking more information before considering an adjustment. Higher bond and mortgage yields, alongside dollar appreciation, have shifted financial conditions from accommodative to neutral.

2. Investment and risks

Investment is broadening beyond artificial intelligence, while geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of a wider Middle East conflict support caution.

Sources

Groupama Asset Management sees 25-basis-point Fed hike in December if data confirm outlook

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Groupama Asset Management sees 25-basis-point Fed hike in December if data confirm outlook

1. Data to guide decision

2. Investment and risks

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Groupama Asset Management sees 25-basis-point Fed hike in December if data confirm outlook

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