HDFC’s triple-hit valuation looks hard to restore

HDFC, though, has also shot itself in the foot. In 2020 the Reserve Bank of India barred it from issuing new credit cards after recurring online shutdowns. A 2023 merger with its mortgage-lender parent failed to live up to its promise. In March its chair resigned citing ethical differences with management. Last month the board fined top executives including Jagdishan for improprieties in deposit pricing while exonerating their actions as "business overreach". The successive crises reflect poorly on Aditya Puri, HDFC's Managing Director and CEO from its inception in 1994 until 2020.

It’s not alone. The $41 billion Kotak Mahindra Bank trades at 2.5 times forward book value that’s half its 2019 peak, having been beset by a poorly handled leadership transition and business restrictions akin to HDFC's.

Lifting those curbs has done little for either firm’s valuation. Not all the country’s lenders are suffering from valuation blues: $107 billion ICICI Bank has undergone a successful turnaround and trades at nearly 3 times book. But HDFC’s path back to the top has too many obstacles.