Home Depot Captures 28% Market Share as True Value Closes, Targets Up to $450
Home Depot captured 28% of home improvement market sales in 2025, outpacing Lowe’s (17%) and Amazon (11%) as independents like Blossom True Value close stores. Truist raised Home Depot’s price target to $405 from $390 and TD Cowen increased its target to $450, both maintaining Buy ratings.
1. Home Improvement Market Share Leadership
Numerator Home Improvement Tracker data shows Home Depot secured 28% of total home improvement sales in 2025, outpacing Lowe’s at 17% and Amazon at 11%. This dominant position reinforces its competitive edge over smaller chains and online sellers.
2. Independent Store Closures Pressuring Sector
Blossom True Value Hardware, a 53-year-old Mountain View store, will close when its lease expires in summer 2026 after losing roughly half its pre-pandemic sales amid online competition, rising tariffs and unaffordable rent. Similar shutdowns by cooperatives and independents highlight the growing consolidation toward big-box retailers.
3. Analyst Price Target Upgrades
Truist lifted its Home Depot price target to $405 from $390, and TD Cowen raised its target to $450 from $410, each maintaining Buy ratings. Analysts pointed to strong card sales data, holiday updates and potential tax refund-driven demand as drivers for these upgrades.