Homrich & Berg flags 37% diesel jump as headwind for US consumers and retail earnings estimates
XLY•Homrich & Berg flagged rising fuel costs as a growing headwind for US consumers, with average diesel prices up nearly 37% and unleaded gas up more than 18% since early July. S&P 500 earnings growth forecasts held steady, but more than half of industries saw third-quarter cuts, concentrated in consumer and selected industrial sectors.
1. Fuel costs and estimates
Homrich & Berg flagged surging fuel costs as a growing headwind for US consumers, with spillovers into selected S&P 500 industries. Since early July, average US diesel prices have risen nearly 37% and unleaded gas prices more than 18%. Headline S&P 500 earnings growth forecasts held steady, though more than half of industries saw third-quarter estimate cuts. Revisions were concentrated in consumer staples, consumer discretionary and parts of industrials; transportation estimates also weakened as diesel climbed. Consumer discretionary retail and distribution have been the most negatively correlated with annual diesel changes since 2009.
