Escalating military exchanges between the U.S., Israel and Iran have raised the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, putting roughly 20% of global crude shipments and up to 3.3 million barrels per day of Iranian exports at risk. UBS now projects notable gains on the front end of the crude futures curve, while HSBC has kept its 2026 Brent forecast at $65 amid these supply concerns, and natural gas benchmarks like JKM, TTF and Henry Hub are also expected to climb on potential LNG disruptions.

Firm crude benchmarks propelled Saudi Aramco shares 3.4% higher, helping to offset a 2.2% decline in the Tadawul All Share Index driven by a sell-off in banking and materials stocks. The energy heavyweight’s rally cushioned losses even as major lenders including Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi National Bank tumbled around 3.4% and over 4% respectively, underscoring how firmer oil prices are underpinning energy equities.