Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have ceased entirely, cutting approximately 15 million barrels per day—about 15% of global liquids demand. Over 750 vessels, including 138 laden oil tankers, remain stranded in the Arabian Gulf, resulting in a cumulative 650 million-barrel supply shortfall since the conflict began.

Brent crude prices surged to $120 per barrel at the conflict’s onset before retreating below $100 as markets price in a potential diplomatic settlement by month-end. The pullback reflects optimism that the supply gap is temporary, though physical constraints persist on the ground.

Analysts caution that a political ceasefire alone won’t restore flows; new non-punitive shipping protocols and revised insurance arrangements are essential. Establishing these multi-layered frameworks may take weeks, prolonging supply disruptions and keeping energy security under strain in Asia-Pacific.