How safe havens stack up as tech, energy and France fears grip markets
TLT•Safe-haven demand is strong as AI jitters, the Iran war and energy prices unsettle markets, but traditional havens have been volatile. Since late February, the dollar has risen 4%; the Swiss franc is up more than 2% against the euro this month, while gold is trading around $4,175 after reaching $5,595 in January.
1. Dollar and franc
The dollar has risen 4% since the Iran war started in late February, supported by a strong economy, higher rates and the United States’ energy-exporter status. Its long-term haven standing remains questioned because of US debt above $40 trillion and policy uncertainty. The Swiss franc is up more than 2% against the euro this month, as concerns about France’s public finances and election uncertainty in France and Spain support demand.
2. Bonds find selective demand
German Bunds have stood out among major economies: when US and French 10-year yields hit 24-year peaks earlier this month, German yields fell as prices rose. Investors also see short-dated government bonds as providing some shelter from debt concerns, while longer-dated bonds remain exposed to high borrowing.
3. Gold’s uneven path
Gold reached a record $5,595 per troy ounce in January, fell after the Iran war began and rallied again in August as inflation concerns returned. It is trading around $4,175. Analysts say central-bank buying and haven demand support prices above $4,000, while high interest rates may limit further gains.
