For nearly two years, UniCredit CRDI.MI CEO Andrea Orcel has pursued Commerzbank CBKG.DE despite public opposition from Berlin. Now, as he prepares for what could be a pivotal encounter with Germany's finance minister, the balance of power in the takeover battle appears to have shifted in his favour.
After months of trying to secure face-to-face talks with German officials, Orcel learned this month that Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil was prepared to meet. Rather than wait for an invitation, Orcel emailed Klingbeil on Monday to press his case directly, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Within 48 hours, he received an invitation.
The veteran dealmaker's persistence has collided with German efforts to keep control of a bank viewed as critical to the country's economic model. Commerzbank is one of the largest lenders to Germany's Mittelstand, the medium-sized companies that form the backbone of Europe's largest economy, and politicians have repeatedly opposed UniCredit's overtures.
Yet successive governments struggled to mount a coherent response. The tussle unfolded as coalition partners were distracted by infighting, efforts to revive Germany's struggling economy and the growing challenge posed by the far-right AfD, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
Politicians examined options for resisting UniCredit but, without obvious legal means to block a deal, disagreed over how far to go and faced practical constraints, they said.
Some favoured a more forceful response, including bolstering the state's sway in Commerzbank, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Others questioned whether potential extra spending could be justified given competing demands, such as for defence.
The planned meeting, scheduled for September 14, comes as resistance to UniCredit's approach has softened.
Commerzbank's campaign against a deal has faded after UniCredit amassed a stake approaching 50%, enough to determine shareholder resolutions. In July, Chairman Jens Weidmann proposed talks with UniCredit after months of resistance.
With Commerzbank, UniCredit and Berlin all now preparing to talk, the debate is increasingly focused on the terms of a deal rather than whether one can be prevented.
XLF•
