Humana Faces 85.7% EPS Drop as Medical Membership Falls 7.6%
Humana’s Q4 2025 consensus projects a $4.01 per share loss on $31.9 billion in revenues, marking an 85.7% year-over-year drop in EPS and 9.2% revenue growth. The company expects medical membership to fall 7.6% while operating costs rise 7%, pushing its benefits expense ratio to 93.26%.
1. Q4 Earnings Projections
Humana is forecast to report a fourth-quarter 2025 loss of $4.01 per share on revenues of $31.9 billion, representing an 85.7% year-over-year EPS decline and 9.2% top-line growth. The EPS estimate has widened by a penny over the past 60 days, reflecting heightened uncertainty around profitability.
2. Rising Costs and Expense Ratio
Total operating costs are expected to increase 7% to over $31.8 billion, driven by higher benefits and general expenses. Consequently, the benefits expense ratio is projected to worsen from 91.5% a year ago to 93.26%, pressuring Humana’s overall margin.
3. Medical Membership Decline
Medical membership is anticipated to drop 7.6% year over year, with specialty membership up just 2.1%. Lower risk-based enrollment and reduced service revenues could exacerbate the earnings shortfall.
4. Peer Performance Context
Cigna, UnitedHealth and Elevance have all reported Q4 results, with adjusted EPS beats ranging from 2.7% to 7.3% but facing similar challenges of declining memberships and elevated costs. Their performance underscores industry-wide headwinds in medical membership and expense management.