Humanoid robot deployment hinges on reliability and uptime, Acquinox Capital says
QQQ•Acquinox Capital said reliable, profitable deployment is the key investment test for humanoid robotics. The IFR counted about 7,000 full-size humanoids sold in 2025, while 2026 forecasts range from 50,000 units in China to 90,000 worldwide.
1. Deployment and returns
Acquinox Capital’s analysis puts reliable, profitable deployment ahead of demonstrations as the sector’s key investment test. The IFR counted about 7,000 full-size humanoids sold in 2025, mostly for research and AI training rather than productive work; bank forecasts for 2026 range from 50,000 units in China to 90,000 worldwide, with differing definitions complicating comparisons. Figure achieved 56% task success in unfamiliar homes, and deployment returns hinge on productive hours, safety and total operating costs. China’s tighter IPO scrutiny raises funding risks, while Unitree’s share price retreated 55% from its peak and state-backed revenue faces sustainability questions.
