IMF chief warns energy shock, growing debt and AI risks threaten global growth
SPY•IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that high energy prices, rising public debt and risks from the AI investment boom threaten global growth. She said oil prices remain at $100 a barrel and public debt is projected to exceed 100% of GDP before 2030.
1. Energy and growth risks
Georgieva said the global economy faces a negative energy supply shock from Middle East conflicts and a positive AI-driven demand shock that is also fuelling inflation. The IMF’s new growth forecasts, due at next week’s meetings in Bangkok, are expected to show the biggest downgrades in war-hit economies, including Ukraine and Gulf countries. She did not indicate whether the IMF would change its July forecast of 3.0% global growth in 2026.
2. Prices and public debt
Oil prices remain at $100 a barrel, Georgieva said, while impaired refining capacity has added $100 in crack-spread margins per barrel for key products including diesel. She said high energy prices will likely persist even if the Gulf war ends soon. Public debt is at its highest level since World War Two and is projected to exceed 100% of GDP before 2030, according to the IMF.
3. AI and policy risks
Georgieva said AI investment as a share of GDP is likely to exceed past infrastructure booms, and warned that market disappointment over productivity and earnings gains could become a “far-reaching shock.” IMF research suggests AI could add half a percentage point to annual world growth if done right. She called for credible medium-term fiscal plans and said a “prudently hawkish bias” in monetary policy may be appropriate in many countries.
